Toward the Inferno.
“Super” El Niño and why shit’s about to get a hell of a lot worse.

ISSUE 8 / ENVIRONMENT

When you study climate physics, most of your life is spent hoping that people will listen to the frankly overwhelming evidence of the danger and intensity of climate change. Many people seem unable to grasp that climate change is a very current danger, and instead have this idea that it is "going to happen". This leads many right wing figures (such as Shane Jones in a recent RNZ interview) to claim that climate scientists and activists have "catastrophised" climate change. I suppose because the chair he's sitting on hasn't literally caught fire yet.

One topic I've seen this misconception flare up in recently is the upcoming El Niño. There's been article upon article describing a "godzilla" or "mega" El Niño that's predicted to cause a mass spike in deaths worldwide. Sea surface temperature anomalies, one of the main ways El Niño is measured, are at near all time highs. Though, for many, this still raises clear questions: what even is "El Niño", and why is everyone talking about it like the rapture is coming?

The term El Niño was first used as a description of warm ocean currents that ran along the coast of Peru and Ecuador during Christmastime, but to most it has come to describe a Pacific-wide climate oscillation. This oscillation is referred to as ENSO by the scientific community, as it is a combination of changes in sea-surface temperatures ("El Niño") and atmospheric pressures ("Southern Oscillation") across the Pacific. Due to coupling in the ocean-atmosphere system, a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific (which are typically cooler) causes increased pressure in the Western Pacific. Winds typically blow from areas of high pressure to those with low pressure, so the east to west trade winds across the Pacific weaken or even reverse. This in turn causes less oceanic circulation, meaning less cold water is brought to the surface, the Eastern Pacific continues to warm, and the cycle repeats. The mechanisms behind the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña weather patterns are not fully understood. But this positive feedback, known as the Bjerknes feedback, is the driving force behind the ends of that oscillation; including the El Niño period we are currently entering. 

An important thing to take away from this is that the impacts of ENSO will vary greatly depending on the region you look at, especially during a particularly strong El Niño such as this one. El Niño affects weather patterns around the globe, and can cause intense rainfall in some regions while causing droughts in others. Much of Africa, Southeast Asia, Brazil, Australia, and parts of the United States are all likely to face decreased rainfall and increased temperatures, threatening agriculture, access to drinking water, and increasing wildfire risk. Areas of the Pacific will see increased rainfall and tropical cyclone risk. Beyond the devastating effects this will have on the regions directly impacted, global food supplies are expected to take a severe hit. The increasing cost of food globally, especially during a cost of living crisis, could push upwards of 50 million people into acute hunger. The scientific description of this being a "very strong" El Niño may sound bland compared to the media’s terms such as "godzilla", but these extreme weather impacts are the best way to understand how bad "very strong" can be. 

There's also no-one-size-fits-all description for the impacts on Aotearoa's weather either, which are expected to peak in November or December. The increased risk of tropical cyclones extends to Auckland, even though much of the North Island is expected to see warmer and drier weather. Much of the country is expected to be windier than usual, which has already become very apparent here in Ōtautahi. Southland and the West Coast are expected to see more intense rainfall and flooding risk this spring, exacerbating dangers the region already faces every year. Canterbury and Otago are heading for a warm, dry period, which may sound nice as we all recover from the horrors of winter in a uni flat, but will cause an increased risk of wildfires across the plains, foothills, and Banks Peninsula. Staying hydrated and having sun protection are going to be even more important than usual; no hat no play!

Ultimately, this El Niño is just another item in the ever-growing list of "unusually" intense climate patterns that we are going to have to become used to. There is considerable uncertainty around how climate change will impact ENSO, especially when trying to consider its regional impact on weather patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent annual report found it very likely that the intensity, frequency, and rate at which we flip between El Niño and La Niña will increase as global temperatures rise. However, it is still unclear whether this will directly translate to a similar increase in the intensity of the El Niño climate impacts.  

What I can confidently say is that this will not be the last time you read about intense climate phenomena, nor about increased drought and flood risk, nor about how food costs are continuing to rise. We live in a global society obsessed with profit above all else, where corporations and the wealthy elite have managed to warp the reality of climate change so they can shelter from their responsibility. Climate change doesn't manifest as a single day where the world spontaneously ignites. It is ever intensifying and increasingly common natural disasters, rising food costs, and growing global scarcity of natural resources. It hits society’s poorest first, as well-off communities can afford rising costs and are the first to be protected from extreme weather events. Politicians like Christopher Luxon and billionaires like Peter Beck will never have to care about the climate destruction they cause, because they will be the last to face the consequences of their own actions. Marketing tools like Shane Jones's "catastrophised" climate change interview and BP's carbon footprint are just some of the many ways that the rich push their responsibility onto a working class they suppress. This is why you hear so many wealthy neoliberals talk about solving climate change with technology that won't be functional for decades, because that's when it starts becoming real for more than just those in poverty. 

If we want to mitigate climate change to any reasonable degree we need to abandon capitalism and its obsession with profit, we need to heavily regulate mega corporations and their pollution, and we need to redistribute wealth. Of course none of us have a button to press that will make all that happen, but in the here-and-now, you can vote Green on November 7th, you can join a local protest group, and you make sure that you at least go down swinging.